Some Day The Big One Will Come

(Or, When Statistical Certainties Attack)

Yesterday, the media began reporting this fun doom-and-gloom fact:

In the next thirty years, California has a 99.7% chance of being shaken by an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 or greater.

Because I'm the worrying type, as soon as I got home, I made sure our emergency supplies were in order.

I had just finished putting away the last item when I stopped and said to the portrait of Charles Richter, anchored securely to the wall, "Wait a minute. What does that mean?"

Geologists, seismologists, and geophysicists are telling us that some time within the next 946,080,000 seconds (or so), a 15-second catastrophic seismic event is guaranteed to occur along one of the state's seven major fault lines. It's a statement that is equally certain and uncertain, specific and ambiguous, and therefore meaningless... mostly. It's news I can almost use.

Anyway, the headline made me wonder if I could produce similarly accurate and foreboding forecasts. If I had "complex analytical tools developed over many years and powerful new computer programs", I'm sure I could, but since I only have Microsoft Calculator, Version 5.1 (Build 2600 : Service Pack 2) on this computer, here's what I came up with:

• In the next thirty years, there's a 99.7% chance a major league pitcher will pitch a perfect game, which will subsequently be subjected to frame-by-frame analysis for any visible signs of cheating. After the post-game press conference, he will undergo several tests to determine if he took any human growth hormones. After a month, he'll be declared clean and free to celebrate his achievement.
  
  
• In the next ten years, there's a 99.7% chance Disney will further tarnish the reputation of its animated classics by making another sequel (oh, I can't wait to see Snow White IV when comes directly to DVD and Blu-ray). (p.s. RIP Ollie Johnston)
  
  
• In the next three years, there's a 99.7% chance Marshall will slap Barney silly on How I Met Your Mother. By then, the show will have jumped the shark and Britney Spears will be part of the cast (possibly as the mysterious mother).
  
  
• In the next four months, there's a 99.7% chance Clinton, McCain, or Obama will make a mistake the other two will latch onto and blow out of proportion. All three will also make appearances -- of equal length and awkwardness -- on an award show to prove they are "in touch" with the American public.
  
  
• In the next week, there's a 99.7% chance somebody on The Bachelor won't receive a rose and will have her dream of marrying a British gentleman dashed forever. By "forever", I mean until after the finale airs and she can resume her life in the real world.

Those are just a few disturbing predictions to ponder while we all wait for the big one to come, which it will... eventually.